Getting to Net Zero

This is the name I decided to call my new blog so for this second post I will explore the concept of net zero carbon emissions and what will be required to get there.

What Exactly Is Net Zero?

Since the start of the industrial revolution, global temperatures have been steadily rising. Climate scientists attribute this warming to the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and methane. Of course these gases occur naturally but over the past 200 years our global economy has been heavily dependent on fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. When we burn those fuels to produce heat for our homes or energy to power our transport and factories, they release GHGs into the atmosphere.

Some of these gases are naturally absorbed by trees and the vast oceans but we have been producing more than nature can deal with and these excess gases have gradually built up in the upper atmosphere and this results in the warming as the blanket of gases act like a giant duvet trapping heat.

In 2015 at COP21 held in Paris there was a historic agreement when all 196 nations in the world pledged to keep global temperatures to well below 2.0C above pre industrial levels and preferably 1.5C and to limit the amount of GHGs to a level that nature can naturally absorb. This is what is meant by net zero emissions.

If we can get these GHGs into balance where the gases going into the atmosphere are aligned with those being naturally removed then global warming will stop. But until we get to this point the warming will continue.

Has Progress Been Made Since Paris?

When the Paris Agreement was signed back in 2015, the projections for reaching 1.5C were 2045. At that time the world had reached 1.0C above pre industrial levels.

Unfortunately, just 9 years later and we are already at 1.4C with 2023 being the warmest year on record. We are rapidly approaching the 1.5C key threshold and the new challenge over the coming decade will be to limit the warming to below 2.0C.

To keep on track for net zero by 2050, we need to reduce global emissions by 45% (compared to a baseline of 2010) by 2030. Unfortunately we are currently on track to increase emissions by 9% by 2030 so clearly the collective pledges made at the COP meetings are not being turned into effective action.

It seems clear that, despite lots of warm words and promises at the annual COP gatherings, little progress has been made to address the climate crisis. The world is currently way off track to meet its stated ambition of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

What are the Main Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)?

Over the past 200 years or so, the industrial revolution has transformed the living conditions of millions of people all around the world. At the heart of this revolution has been an increasingly heavy dependence on fossil fuels - mainly coal, oil and gas. These carbon-based fuels release that carbon when used to create the energy to heat our homes and power industry and transport.

The scale of these emissions has gradually increased due to an ever increasing world population and ever growing industrialisation as economies grow and affluence expands.

The main GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2) which accounts for around 75% of emissions. Once released, it remains in the atmosphere for very long periods...over 100 years.

Methane (CH4) accounts for around 15% of emissions. It is generated naturally in wetlands, oceans and termites for example but also from industrial activities such as the extraction and use of fossil fuels, intensive livestock farming and from the decomposition of organic waste from landfill sites. Although the volume is much less than for CO2, it is 50x more potent so is just as dangerous. Fortunately it only hangs around for 10 years or so not a century.

Another gas which is produced naturally in our soils and oceans is nitrous oxide (N2O) but again there are significant amounts resulting from fossil fuels and the widespread use of nitrogen fertilisers in agriculture.

Finally hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) represent around 2% of greenhouse gases but their impact on global warming can be 2,000 times greater than CO2. They are mainly used in refrigeration and air conditioning processes.

Despite the pledges made at the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015, carbon emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase year on year resulting in more and more global warming. CO2 levels are the highest they have been for at least the past 800,000 years...currently 425ppm.

Currently 425ppm  credit NOAA Mauna Loa, Hawaii
(click to enlarge)

So, getting to net zero will be a huge challenge for humanity...but the alternative is surely unthinkable. The global climate crisis poses an existential threat to life as we have known it for many thousands of years and the the collective effort to stop global warming is the defining challenge of this generation...the next generation will be too late. We have the next decade to find a way to phase out fossil fuels and transition to cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar and hydro and make fundamental changes to the way we organise our everyday lives.

In a future article I will take a look at the role of the fossil fuel industry and the many ways they use to block policies to tackle the climate crisis and maintain business as usual.

Feel free to comment below on any thoughts you may have in relation to this article or climate change in general...thanks for reading.

The DIY Investor Has Moved On...

 

For the past decade or so I was engaged with my investment blog DIY Investor. Having retired from full time work in 2008, I had more time to focus on my hobby of investing and in 2013 I decided to start a simple blog to write about my journey and share some of my thoughts and experience with a wider community of like-minded people.

I tried to invest in a green way aiming to align my investments with my values and lifestyle. Therefore I avoided the fossil fuel companies such as Shell, BP and Exxon as well as the big banks which finance their global operations and instead aimed to invest in greener alternatives such as those engaged in renewable energy.

However, in recent years it has become clear to me that the lack of action in addressing the climate crisis is rapidly leading to the radical destabilisation of life on Earth as we know it. We face floods and wildfires, loss of biodiversity, warming oceans, melting ice sheets. This is leading to massive crop failures and many areas around the world becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to drought or excessive heat. 

Our global economies will not be sustainable in a world of accelerating climate change and I have taken some time to re-evaluate my thoughts around investing and the global markets. I am now in my 70s and for the foreseeable future I think my time would be far better spent writing about this climate crisis rather than investing!

Back in 2015 at Paris, the world agreed to limit the global temperature to 1.5C and that has been the centrepiece of efforts to limit warming. But each year climate scientist have been warning that governments are not doing enough or moving quickly enough to meet this target. A senior climate scientist and former head of the IPCC, Sir Bob Watson, no longer thinks we will hit this 1.5C target and is even pesimistic about 2.0C. Based on current pledges from around the world it is estimated warming will rise to 2.7C.

Just this month the World Met Office released their State of Global Climate Report for 2023

It confirms that 2023 was the hottest year on record by some distance with records broken for greenhouse gas levels, ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice loss and glacier retreat.

“Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones caused misery and mayhem, upending everyday life for millions and inflicting many billions of dollars in economic losses”.

WMO confirms 2023 Warmest on Record

I recall the first time I heard a speech by a young Greta Thunberg at Davos in January 2019 and it’s worth repeating a short extract:

“Our house is on fire. I am here to say, our house is on fire.

We are facing a disaster of unspoken sufferings for enormous amounts of people. And now is not the time for speaking politely or focusing on what we can or cannot say. Now is the time to speak clearly.

Solving the climate crisis is the greatest and most complex challenge that Homo sapiens have ever faced. The main solution, however, is so simple that even a small child can understand it. We have to stop our emissions of greenhouse gases.

Either we do that or we don’t.

You say nothing in life is black or white. But that is a lie. A very dangerous lie. Either we prevent 1.5C of warming or we don’t. Either we avoid setting off that irreversible chain reaction beyond human control or we don’t.

Either we choose to go on as a civilisation or we don’t. That is as black or white as it gets. There are no grey areas when it comes to survival.

We all have a choice. We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations. Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail”.

It seems very little has changed over the past five years. Global warming continues and I believe efforts to keep 1.5C alive is now gone. The G20 refuse to phase out fossil fuels and the global economy continues with business as usual as we play Russian roulette with the possibility of irreversible climate tipping points.

I’m really not sure how all this will play out in the coming months and years but I will try to play a small part in raising awareness about the significant dangers we all face from the deepening climate crisis. 

I hope readers will find future blog articles interesting and if so, please help to spread the word to a wider audience.Thanks for reading and if you have any thoughts on the climate issues feel free to comment below